代码运行的世界

这是一份经过编辑的最近谈话I gave at a区块链会议,我在哪里说过“当计算智能和计算契约无处不在时徳赢彩票游戏,世界会是什么样子?”

我们今天生活在一个有趣的时刻——一个我们刚刚开始看到所谓“计算力”的含义的时刻。最后,it's something that's going to affect almost everything.And what's going to happen is really a deep story 徳赢彩票游戏about the interplay between the human condition,the achievements of human civilization—and the fundamental nature of this thing we call computation.

vwin中国史蒂芬·沃尔夫拉姆在用代码运行的世界上

那么什么是计算呢?Well,这就是当你遵守规则时会发生的事情,或者我们所说的程序。Now of course there are plenty of programs that we humans have written to do particular things.But what 徳赢彩票游戏about programs in general—programs in the abstract?Well,there's an infinite universe of possible programs out there.And many years ago I turned my analog of a telescope towards that computational universe.这就是我看到的:

细胞自动机
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GraphicsGrid[ Partition[  Table[ArrayPlot[CellularAutomaton[n,{{ 1 },0},{30,All}],图像尺寸>40],{n,0,255 },16]]

每个框代表不同的简单程序。And often they just do something simple.But look more carefully.有一个很大的惊喜。This is the first example I saw—规则30:

规则30
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arrayplot[纤维乌托马通[30,{{ 1 },0},{300,All}],pixelponstrated->1]规则图[cellularautomaton[30]

You start from one cell,你只需遵循这个简单的程序,但这里是你得到的:所有的复杂性。一开始很难相信你能从这么少的东西中得到这么多。But seeing this changed my whole worldview,让我意识到计算的力量有多强大。

Because that's what's making all that complexity.And that's what lets nature—seemingly so effortlessly—make the complexity it does.It's also what allows something like mathematics to have the richness it does.And it provides the raw material for everything it's possible for us humans to do.

事实上,我们只是开始充分利用计算的力量。And actually,我们今天所做的大多数事情以及我们构建的技术都是专门为避免这种情况而设置的。Because we think we have to make sure that everything stays simple enough that we can always foresee what's going to happen.

但是要利用所有的能量computational universe,we've got to go beyond that.所以这里有个问题:有一些我们人类想要做的事情,然后在计算宇宙中有所有的能力。那么,我们如何将它们结合在一起呢?

Well,事实上,我花了很长时间试图解决这个问题,我认为关键是我所说的计算语言。And,对,there's only basically one full computational language that exists in the world today—and it's the one I've spent the past three decades building—theWolfram Language.

Traditional computer languages—"programming languages"—are designed to tell computers what to do,从本质上讲,就是计算机使用的本机术语。但是,计算语言的理念是采用我们人类思考的东西,徳赢彩票游戏and then have a way to express them computationally.We need a computational language to be able to talk not just 徳赢彩票游戏about data types and data structures in a computer,还有关于我们世界上徳赢彩票游戏存在的真实事物,以及我们用来讨论它们的知识框架。

And with a computational language,我们不仅有办法帮助我们形成计算思维,同时也是一种与电脑交流的方式。

I think the arrival of computational language is something really important.There's some analog of it in the arrival of mathematical notation 400 or so years ago—that's what allowed math to take off,and in many ways launched our modern technical world.There's also some analog in the whole idea of written language—which launched so many things 徳赢彩票游戏about the way our world is set up.

But,you know,如果我们看看历史,可能唯一最强烈的系统趋势是技术进步。随着时间的推移,我们已经能够实现越来越多的自动化。随着计算速度的急剧加快。最后,in some sense,we'll be able to automate almost everything.但是仍然有一些事情是无法自动化的:我们想做什么的问题。

It's the pattern of technology today,and it's going to increasingly be the pattern of technology in the future: we humans define what we want to do—we set up goals—and then technology,尽可能高效,试着做我们想做的。Of course,其中一个关键部分就是解释我们想要什么。这就是计算语言的关键所在:因为它使我们能够将我们的思想转化为可以通过计算自动执行的东西。实际上,这是我们思维模式之间的桥梁,and the force of computation.

让我说一点关于计算语言的实际情况。徳赢彩票游戏Back at the dawn of the computer industry,we were just dealing with raw computers programmed in machine code.但很快就出现了低级编程语言,然后我们开始想当然地认为我们的计算机会有操作系统,then user interfaces,and so on.

Well,one of my goals is to make computational intelligence also something that's ubiquitous.这样,当你走向你的计算机时,你可以想当然地认为它将拥有我们文明的智慧,而这正是它所蕴含的知识。它将立即了解世界的事实,徳赢彩票游戏and be able to use the achievements of science and other areas of human knowledge to work things out.

Obviously with Wolfram Language and沃尔夫拉姆阿尔法and so on we've built a lot of this.And you can even often use human natural language to do things like ask questions.But if you really want to build up anything at all sophisticated,you need a more systematic way to express yourself,and that's where computational language—and the Wolfram Language—is critical.

好啊,好,这是一个重要的用例:computational contracts.In today's world,we're typically writing contracts in natural language,or actually in something a little more precise: legalese.但是,如果我们可以用计算语言编写合同呢?然后他们可以一直像我们希望的那样精确。But there's something else: they can be executed automatically,自主地。Oh,以及可验证性,和可模拟的,and so on.

计算契约比典型的区块链智能合约更为普遍。因为他们天生就可以谈论现实世界。徳赢彩票游戏它们不仅仅涉及加密货币的运动;它们涉及数据、传感器和执行器。They involve turning questions of human judgement into machine learning classifiers.最后,I think they'll basically be what run our world.

马上,most of what the computers in the world do is to execute tasks we basically initiate.但我们的世界将越来越多地让计算机自主地相互作用,according to computational contracts.Once something happens in the world—some computational fact is established—we'll quickly see cascades of computational contracts executing.And there'll be all sorts of complicated内在随机性在不同计算行为的相互作用中。

从某种意义上说,我们将拥有一个完整的人工智能文明。通过自己的活动,历史,and memories.计算契约实际上是人工智能文明的规律。我们可能想要一种人工智能构成,that defines how generally we want the AIs to act.

Not everyone or every country will want the same one.但是我们经常想说“对人类好”。但是我们怎么说呢?Well,we'll have to use a computational language.我们最后会不会发表一些微小的声明,一些金科玉律,来实现我们想要的一切?The complexity of human systems of laws doesn't make that seem likely.And actually,with what we know 徳赢彩票游戏about computation,we can see that it's theoretically impossible.

Because,basically,it's inevitable that there will be unintended consequences—corner cases,或者虫子,或者什么。And there'll be an infinite hierarchy of patches one needs to apply—a bit like what we see in human laws.

你知道的,I keep on talking 徳赢彩票游戏about computers and AIs doing computation.但实际上,computation is a more general thing.It's what you get by following any set of rules.它们可能是计算机程序的规则。但它们也可能是规则,say,for some technological system,或是自然界的某个系统。

想想计算宇宙徳赢彩票游戏中所有的程序。详细地说,they're all doing different things.但它们是如何比较的呢?有没有比谁更有权势的整个阶层?Well,事实证明,计算宇宙是一个非常平等的地方,因为我发现了一种叫做计算等效原理.

因为这一原则所说的是,所有行为不明显简单的程序实际上在其所做的复杂计算中是等效的。It doesn't matter if your rules are very simple or very complicated: there's no difference in the sophistication of the computations that get done.

自从80多年前通用计算建立起来了:有可能有一个固定的机器,可以编程来做任何可能的计算。显然,这是一个重要的想法,因为它是软件行业的发起者,以及许多当前的技术。

But the Principle of Computational Equivalence says something more: it says that not only is something like universal computation possible,它无处不在。在可能的程序的计算领域中,许多程序都实现了这一点,即使是非常简单的,like rule 30.And,对,in practice that means we can expect to make computers out of much simpler—say molecular—components than we might ever have imagined.And it means that all sorts of even rather simple software systems can be universal—and can't be guaranteed secure.

But there's a more fundamental consequence: the phenomenon ofcomputational irreducibility.能够预测事物是一件大事,for example in traditional science-oriented thinking.But if you're going to predict what a computational system—say rule 30—is going to do,这意味着你必须比现在聪明。但是计算等效原理说这是不可能的。不管是电脑、大脑还是其他什么东西,it's doing computations that have exactly the same sophistication.

所以它不能超过实际系统本身。系统的行为在计算上是不可简化的:除非通过显式地运行或监视它,否则无法查明它将是什么。你知道的,I came up with the idea of computational irreducibility in the early 1980s,and I've thought a lot 徳赢彩票游戏about its applications in science,in understanding自由意志等现象,and so on.但我从未料到它会在区块链的工作证明中找到一个应用程序,and that measurable fractions of the world's computers would be spending their time purposefully grinding computational irreducibility.

顺便说一句,计算上的不可约性意味着你总是会有意想不到的结果,你将无法拥有一个简单而完整的人工智能宪法。但在某种意义上,这也是计算上的不可约性,这意味着历史是重要的:历史进程中有一些不可约的成就。

你知道的,到目前为止,在历史上,我们只有一个我们称之为“智能”的例子,那就是人类智能。But something the Principle of Computational Equivalence implies is that actually there are lots of things that are computationally just as sophisticated.有一个人工智能是我们有意建立的。But then there are also things like the weather.对,我们可以用某种泛灵论的方式说“天气有它自己的思想”。但是,计算等效原理所暗示的是,在某种意义上,它确实做到了:大气中的流体动力学过程和我们大脑中发生的任何事情一样复杂。

当我们眺望宇宙时,there are endless examples of sophisticated computation—that we really can't distinguish from "extraterrestrial intelligence".唯一的区别是,就像天气一样,它只是在计算。There's no alignment with human purposes.Of course,that's a slippery business.Is that graffiti on the blockchain put there on purpose?还是仅仅是一些计算过程的结果?

That's why computational language is important: it provides a bridge between raw computation and human thinking.如果我们look inside a typical modern neural net,很难理解它的作用。与automated proof of a theorem.The issue is that there's no "human story" that can be told 徳赢彩票游戏about what's going on there.这是计算,alright.但是——有点像天气,它不是与人类经验相关的计算。

It's a bit of a complicated thing,though.因为当事情变得熟悉时,他们最终看起来像人类。我们发明了天气中常见现象的词汇,and then we can effectively use them to tell stories 徳赢彩票游戏about what's going on.I've spent much of my life as a computational language designer.从某种意义上讲,语言设计的本质是识别计算工作中常见的块,在语言中可以构成原语。

这是一种圆形的东西。一旦一个人发展出一个特定的原始概念——一个特定的抽象概念,他就会发现他可以从这个角度开始思考。然后一个人建立的东西最终都是基于它的。It's the same with human natural language.曾经有一段时间,“桌子”一词不存在。所以人们不得不开始用平面来描述事物,和腿,and so on.但最终,“表”的抽象出现了。And once it did,it started to get incorporated into the environment people built for themselves.

这是一个常见的故事。在数学中,可能的定理是无限多的。But the ones people study are ones that are reached by creating some general abstraction and then progressively building on it.在计算方面,在计算宇宙中有很多事情发生,就像在物理宇宙中有很多事情发生,我们没有办法去连接。

It's like the AIs are going off and leading their own existence,我们不知道发生了什么。但这就是计算语言的重要性,and computational contracts.They're what let us connect the AIs with what we humans understand and care 徳赢彩票游戏about.

让我们谈谈更遥远的未来。徳赢彩票游戏Given the Principle of Computational Equivalence I have to believe that our minds—our consciousness—can perfectly well be represented in purely digital form.所以,好啊,at some point the future of our civilization might be basically a trillion souls in a box.人工智能的外星智能和人类智能的未来将有一个复杂的混合体。

But here's the terrible thing: looked at from the outside,我们未来的一万亿灵魂将只做计算,并根据计算等价原则,those computations won't be any more sophisticated than the computations that happen,say,所有这些电子都在岩石内部运行。The difference,虽然,is that the computations in the box are in a senseour计算;they're computations that are connected to our characteristics and our purposes.

At some level,it seems like a bad outcome if the future of our civilization is a trillion disembodied souls basically playing videogames for the rest of eternity.但是人类的目的在进化。我是说,如果你试图向一千年前的人解释为什么今天我们会在跑步机上行走,we'd find it pretty difficult.我认为好消息是在历史上的任何时候,徳赢中国what's happening then can seem completely meaningful at that time.

The Principle of Computational Equivalence tells us that in a sense computation is ubiquitous.现在,我们定义的计算主要存在于我们已经构建的计算机中。但及时,我想我们不会只是have电脑:基本上一切都会made of计算机。A bit like a generalization of how it works with biological life,每一个物体和每一种材料都将由我们定义的计算组件组成。

But the pressure again is on how we do that definition.物理学给出了一些基本规则。但我们要说的不止这些。And it's computational language that makes what we say be meaningful to us humans.

In the much nearer term,there's a very important transition: the point at which literacy in computational language becomes truly commonplace.It's been great with the Wolfram Language that we can nowgive kids a way to actually do computational thinking for real.很高兴我们现在能拥有计算论文where people get to express themselves in a mixture of natural language and computational language.

But what will be possible with this?从某种意义上说,人类语言是文明的起源。计算语言将做什么?我们可以重新思考几乎所有的事情:民主是通过让每个人写一篇关于他们想要什么的计算性文章而起作用的,徳赢彩票游戏that's then fed to a big central AI—which inevitably has all the standard problems of political philosophy.徳赢中国New ways to th徳赢彩票游戏ink about what it means to do science,or to know things.如何组织和理解人工智能的文明。

其中很大一部分将从计算契约和自主计算的思想开始——自然法世界的一种奇怪的合并,human law,以及计算定律。像莱布尼兹这样的人早在三个世纪前就预料到了,但今天终于变成了现实。最后是一个代码运行的世界。

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